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Nairobi, Kenya
- As Kenyan commandos fought pitched battles against the remaining few
gunmen inside Nairobi's burned and blood-splattered shopping mall,
questions began arising about what blowback the sensational siege would
have upon a turbulent region.
The
Westgate raid is likely to impact Nairobi's war in neighbouring
Somalia, and offer insights into the tactics and strength of al-Shabab,
the Somali hardliners who claimed responsibility for the carnage.
Security
has already been beefed up across Kenya, but analysts say the
dozen-or-so masked gunmen, who killed more than 60 shoppers during four
days of terror, exposed Kenya's failure to guard the most prestigious
shopping centre in its capital.
"It's
a huge security breach. Attacks on soft targets like this were known to
be coming since Kenya intervened in Somalia," said Abdirashid Hashi of
the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies think-tank. "But small arms
are available, and if people who are determined to die storm a shopping
mall, there's not much that security agencies can do."
Relatives
of the hostages expressed frustration as Kenyan troops painstakingly
re-took the four-storey block over four days. Deputy President William
Ruto spoke of the need to "up our game". Others praised the commandos
for risking their lives against the Kalashnikov-toting attackers.
‘Al-Qaeda 2.0'
Cedric
Barnes, from the International Crisis Group, said the strike reveals
shifting tactics within al-Shabab, the Islamist rebels behind a string
of smaller attacks across Kenya since Nairobi sent troops into its
lawless neighbour in October 2011.
"The
Westgate raid may have tentacles reaching back into Somalia, but it
appears to have regional and even international expertise in its
planning - more like al-Qaeda 2.0 than al-Shabab," Barnes told Al
Jazeera. "It also couldn't have happened without a serious and
entrenched Kenya-based cell."
The
assault marks al-Shabab's first foreign foray since the group underwent
a bloody power struggle in June, in which rivals were killed or swept
aside and Ahmed Godane - also known as Ahmed Abdi Aw-Mohamed - emerged
as a leader.
The
new boss could be stepping up activities, said Barnes. The Westgate
attack follows deadly recent hits on Turkey's Embassy in Mogadishu,
Somalia's airports, and a strike on the United Nations compound that
claimed 15 lives.
When
Kenya's foreign minister, Amina Mohamed, said the attackers included
Americans and a seasoned female British fighter, combined with evidence
of meticulous planning, fears of orchestration by al-Qaeda grew
stronger.
In
unverified Twitter handles, al-Shabab apparently said the bloodbath was
timely retaliation for Kenya's invasion into its southern Somali
heartlands. Spokesman Sheikh Abulaziz Abu Muscab said: "Our aim is to attack our enemy when they least expect us."
Game-changer?
While
al-Shabab has a shrunk to some 5,000 fighters and lost Mogadishu and
the lucrative charcoal-exporting port of Kismayu, the brazen Westgate
raid secured global attention and could represent a game-changing
reversal of fortunes.
"Al-Shabab's
end is no longer the talk of the town. They deflected the lens from
internal strife, are energising their base, and putting fear in the
heart of Kenyans," said Hashi. "Al-Shabab is weaker than ever before,
but is a phenomenon the region must deal with for a while longer."
Ken
Menkhaus disagreed. The political science professor from Davidson
College described a "desperate, high-risk gamble" in the face of
dwindling support, power struggles and successive defeats to 17,700
soldiers from Kenya and other African states operating under the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).
"If
the deadly attack succeeds in prompting vigilante violence by Kenyan
citizens or heavy-handed government reactions against Somali residents,
Shabab stands a chance of recasting itself as the vanguard militia
protecting Somalis against external enemies," Menkhaus said.
"It
desperately needs to reframe the conflict in Somalia as Somalis versus
the foreigners, not as Somalis who seek peace and a return to normalcy
versus a toxic jihadi movement."
In
Geneva on Tuesday, Nicholas Kay, UN envoy for Somalia, described a
"once-in-a-generation" chance to defeat al-Shabab and bring peace to
Somalia. "The amount of money that we're talking about ... would be very
small. But the cost of walking away would be very expensive."
Amid
questions over Kenya's response, President Uhuru Kenyatta said he will
not withdraw Kenyan forces from Somalia. East Africa's biggest economy
will "hunt down the perpetrators" of Westgate and "not relent on the war
on terror", he said.
Barnes
said although Kenyatta will not retreat from Somalia, he may choose to
leave "sooner rather than later" because Nairobi has already achieved
its goal of creating a safety buffer-zone beyond its northeastern
border.
‘Got what it wanted'
Kenyan
forces sided with Sheikh Ahmed Madobe's Ras Kamboni militia when
kicking al-Shabab out of Kismayu in September last year. This paved the
way for Madobe to strike a two-year deal with the federal government in
Mogadishu to run Somalia's southern Juba region last month.
"Kenya
has got what it wanted, a deal that secures its influence in Jubaland,"
said Barnes. "If the deal sticks between Madobe and Somalia's federal
government then ... Kenya will be keen to limit its exposure inside
Somalia. Better to concentrate on the threats in Kenya."
While
regional shifts take time to play out, immediate effects of Westgate
are already being felt five kilometres from the mall in Eastleigh, a
Somali-dominated suburb of Nairobi, where a large population of refugees
from Kenya's chaotic neighbour fear reprisals.
"Some
people have closed their businesses and aren't taking their children to
school through fear of something happening - although nothing is
happening," said Jayhan Mohamad, who assists Somali refugees in
Eastleigh.
"The
raid has nothing to do with our culture or religion. The attackers are
giving us a bad name for no reason and we are not part of it."
Kenyan
officials have repeatedly called for calm and warned against ethnic
violence. President Kenyatta said the "evil act of terrorism will not
divide ... a multi-cultural and multi-religious society". But East
Africa's biggest economy has a patchy record in handling Somalis.
Kenyans have rioted in Eastleigh - also known as "Little Mogadishu" - after smaller al-Shabab hits.
New York-based Human Rights Watch said
Kenyan police tortured, raped and abused Somali refugees during
crackdowns against a community that is perceived to be sympathetic to
Islamists.
"There
is a risk of continued harassment of Somalis and other minorities in
Eastleigh, Mombasa and the coast," said Barnes. "I can't imagine they
will change the way they deal with people seen as internal risks."
Follow James Reinl on Twitter: @jamesreinl
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Thursday, 26 September 2013
Nairobi attack: Game-changer for East Africa?
