By MACHEL AMOS in Juba | Sunday, October 20
2013 at
18:14
President Salva Kiir of the South Sudan has lost all his
key men just eight years after taking power. The exits are a defining
moment for Kiir’s political career.
As he seeks to steer the young country uncertainty
over the fate of the disputed Abyei region persists. A referendum on
Abyei was slated for this month but it remains unclear if it will take
place.
Last month, President Kiir suggested that the 2015
general election may be delayed, citing lack of funds for census and
finalisation of the new Constitution. So, how will his political
fortunes fare in coming months.
Garang boys
His assumption to office in 2005, was a walk in
the park. The death of Dr John Garang in a plane crash in July 2005 had
left him the heir apparent. Many had angled for the post including
former vice president Riek Machar and former Foreign minister Lam Akol.
Unlike Kiir, both Dr Akol and Dr Machar are intellectuals with PhDs like
the late Dr Garang, but Kiir’s strong point was his popularity within
the military.
Kiir inherited the leadership together with a team
that worked with the late Dr Garang, commonly referred to as the
“Garang Boys.” Eight years later that team is out in the wilderness.
Dr Akol formed his own party in 2009, accusing
Kiir of failing to rein in the corruption, tribalism, and insecurity
that he said were tearing the country apart. Dr Machar followed suit in
July, in a falling out with the boss, apparently because of similar
concerns.
In 2007, Kiir fired former deputy Interior
minister in Khartoum and close ally Aleu Ayieny, along with Telar Ring
Deng. He went ahead to suspend them from the party for allegedly making
statements that did not reflect the position of the party and government
about the death of Dr Garang.
With the duo out in the cold, Kiir continued with
the remaining Garang Boys who included the ruling party
secretary-general Pagan Amum, former Foreign minister Nhial Deng Nhial
and former Cabinet Affairs minister Deng Alor Kuol.
Part of this team is also out, with Mr Amum being
investigated for insubordination and Mr Kuol awaiting action on a report
of an anti-corruption enquiry into the transfer of nearly $8m to a
private firm.
Mr Ayieny is back in the fold as the Interior
minister and Mr Ring as the justice advisor. Mr Ring is said to have had
a hand in the July Cabinet reshuffle that saw all ministers sacked. A
handful later returned to the fold.
Humiliation
The duo — Mr Ayieny and Mr Deng — referred to Kiir
as a dictator in February 2008. When he was fired in 2007, Mr Ayieny
warned of revenge.
“I warn all of you, the communists behind my
unwarranted humiliation, that I will not take this insult lying down nor
do I have the intention to be exonerated, absolved and rehabilitated
posthumously,” reads a scathing 2008 letter to Mr Amum attributed to Mr
Ayieny.
“Whoever is pushing people to the corner or to the
wrong camp is doing it at his own peril and the peril of the SPLM.” Mr
Ayieny believed that Mr Amum and the Garang Boys were pushing people
into the internal opposition.
“Pagan now has his answer,” said poet and
political commentator Kuir Garang. “With increasing influence on Kiir,
the two men have now decided to isolate those they feel threaten Kiir’s
leadership and those they feel can prevent them from helping Kiir
consolidate power in South Sudan,” Mr Kuir said.
Kiir has also brought former members of Bashir’s
ruling party close, including former Bashir deputy party leader Dr Riek
Gai Kok, who is now Health minister.
Kiir also named former Popular Congress Party 2010
presidential candidate Dr Abdhalla Nhial as the minister for
Electricity, Dams, Irrigation and Water Resources.
“It seems the SPLM has shifted decision making to
its caucus in the Parliament and away from the relevant structures,”
said Luka Biong Deng, a senior member of Kiir’s party.
When Kiir legitimised his leadership in the 2010
general election, he was in charge of picking governors for the 10
states on behalf of his party. Nine of them won the contest.
But during the change of guard, Kiir fired elected
Lakes State Governor Chol Tong Mayay and Unity State’s Taban Deng Gai
and replaced them with caretakers. Matur Chut took the helm at Lakes
State and Joseph Monytuil Nguen, former senior member of Bashir’s party
took the helm in Unity State.
Mr Mayay and Mr Gai were said to have paid the
price for rooting for Dr Machar to replace President Kiir. Kiir also
elevated Jonglei State Governor Kuol Manyang Juuk, who was instrumental
in Kiir’s ascension to power at New Site following the death of Dr
Garang. Mr Juuk was given the defence docket.
Lost direction
Party members are now calling for a national convention to ratify new party documents after Independence.
The last convention was in 2008, during which Dr
Machar and Mr Nhial vied for the top job. Kiir eventually won the seat
by consensus. This time round, the stakes are high and observers say the
president is consolidating his power base ahead of the convention.
Dr Machar and Pagan Amum have been saying that the party has lost direction.
During the party’s national convention, Kiir is
expected to make a case for more time in office while Dr Machar is also
expected to make a bid to take over from Kiir. The election will
determine whether Kiir’s change of guard has worked for him.
With the general election scheduled for next year,
Kiir’s ruling party is already divided, with rumours of his deputy Dr
Machar’s intention to break away in an effort to oust his boss.
Kiir it seems, has the odds stacked against him.
He is facing accusations of poor nationalism. The case in point is the
1991 split of opponents Dr Machar and opposition leader Dr Akol from the
rebel mainstream during the war. Kiir is also handling rampant
insecurity and an unstable economy.
“When you have an economy that depends on one
commodity, it is already a problem,” said economist Lual Deng. A proper
banking system should be in place, if the government is to improve the
economy.”
“As things stand today, these banks are not
contributing to our economy, if anything they are encouraging capital
flight,” said Dr Deng. “Ours is an open economy. You just march in and
march out.”
Going strong
There are also pending issues with Sudan, including Abyei and border demarcation, which can incite public anger against Kiir.
“The ride to the top for Dr Machar is a stiff
climb. He faces considerable challenges like lack of trust by the
majority of the members of the political party that he wants to lead,”
said Steve Paterno, author of Rev Fr Saturnino Lohure, A Roman Catholic Priest Turned Rebel.
In 2008, the party election rules demanded that a
contestant for chairman must have had 10 years in the party, and by that
time, Dr Machar had done only six years since rejoining the rebel
movement turned ruling party.
“Even more troubling, Dr Machar has no power base
compared to the one he used to enjoy among his Nuer ethnic group,” Mr
Paterno said.
The chances of defeating Kiir, according to Mr Paterno, are also limited for Dr Akol.
“Dr Akol’s challenges are equally daunting. For
example, he is considered by majority of South Sudanese as Khartoum’s
puppet and hence untrustworthy. As a result, he lacks a constituency
within South Sudan,” he said.
Food production in South Sudan has increased
considerably in the past year but hunger remains widespread as
population growth neutralises gains in output.
Latest data shows production in 2012 reached
710,000 cereal equivalent tonnes (the value of all types of food
converted into grain values) from the 470,000 tonnes a year earlier.
This reduced the deficit from 610,000 tonnes in
2011 to 370,000 tonnes in 2012. In 2011, production was affected by
unstable rainfall patterns especially in the north of the country where
farmers were forced to plant more than once.
SOURCE: AFRICA REVIEW
SOURCE: AFRICA REVIEW
