Thursday 3 October 2013

Why terrorists might decide who becomes Kenya’s next president

By CHARLES ONYANGO-OBBO | Wednesday, October 2   2013 at  20:08
I went to the Village Market in Nairobi the other day, and this time I had to get out of the car. The security guards searched the glove compartment, looked under the seat, and checked all the nooks and crannies.
In the past, I would have been extremely irritated. Now I calmly resign to it as necessary, all thanks to the outrageous terrorist attack on the Westgate Mall by Al-Shabaab militants that killed 75 people, and wounded 175.
The acceptance of these additional security procedures do tell us how the small, medium and big terrorist attacks Kenya has witnessed since the 1998 American embassy bombings could reshape Kenyan politics in years to come.
Partly because of these attacks, there is in Kenya a hankering for firm leadership, a growing desire for a steely warrior’s hand on the steering wheel of national affairs.
This explains why many were frustrated with former President Mwai Kibaki’s “laid-back” style (though I found it endearing).
Kibaki came to power at the end December 2002, after his National Rainbow Coalition defeated Kanu when Daniel arap Moi stepped down after 24 years as Kenya’s Big Man.
Moi was no pushover. He was tough, and often ruthless, but with a rural side to him that enabled him to be more in touch with the common people’s feelings.
Unfortunately, that was also the source of the populism and hatred for Old Kenyan money that saw him bring the country to its knees.
For all his toughness, though, my sense is that Moi himself was shaken by the 1998 bombings in Nairobi in which 212 people died, and 4,000 were wounded. Indeed, the beginnings of Moi’s rule after the death of Jomo Kenyatta in 1978 were greeted by terrorism.
Barely two years after he took over the presidency, on New Year’s Eve, 1980, a bomb struck the Norfolk Hotel in Nairobi, killing 20 people and injuring 80. An Arab group that claimed responsibility for it said it was revenge for Kenya allowing Israeli troops to refuel in Nairobi during the raid on Entebbe airport in 1976 to rescue hostages from a hijacked plane.
I suspect the 1998 embassy bombings had an impact on Moi’s decision to step down, because he must have realised that the world was changing into something very ugly.
A human teleprompter
His successor, Kibaki’s hands-off approach, was only possible because it gave Kenyans the kind of freedom they had not known since independence, so they were willing to hold their noses and make the trade-off.
All went terribly wrong during the post-election violence of early 2008 when people felt the government should have been more decisive in stopping the mayhem.
From that time, the yearning for a steely hand returned seriously. Even Kibaki realised he needed to appease Kenyans with a show of masculinity, so he sent the Kenya Defence Forces into Somalia to take on Al-Shabaab.
The Westgate attack seems to have added more fuel to this demand for a strong protector. Therefore, while at one level it was surprising to see the Commander of the Kenya Army General Julius Karangi playing the role of a human teleprompter and whispering answers in the ear of Interior Secretary Joseph ole Lenku during a briefing on the terrorist attack, at another level, it was only to be expected.
The calculation must have been that the only way Kenyans could be reassured in the face of the Westgate terror was to see a warrior like Karangi in the wings.
Indeed, it was interesting to see Kenya’s police boss David Kimaiyo arrive at Westgate. He was in civilian clothes, and possibly realised he needed to look martial. So he plonked on his helmet and bulletproof vest.
There was a little problem though; because of his midriff girth, he could not nimbly put on the bullet proof himself. He asked an aide for help.
Terrorism is opening the way for a no-nonsense former general to be elected president in Kenya in years to come. It would be surprising. We live in a tough neighbourhood.
Today in the East African Community Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda all have presidents who were either former guerrilla chiefs or officers in the army.
Kenya is the odd man out. The terrorists are ensuring that it won’t be for much longer.
cobbo@ke.nationmedia.com& twitter:cobbo3

SOURCE: AFRICAA REVIEW